Course Description

The Early Warning and Response module focuses on the analysis of information for the specific purpose of strategic or operational level early warning, and the development of elementary early warning, analytic approaches suited to the client’s context and institutional environment. This module is premised on an appreciation of uncertainty as an inherent element of domestic or international security. Students are therefore introduced to the concept, its meaning in the intelligence context and the extent to which uncertainty is both a constant in National Security and an instrument of power that can be induced by criminal entities’ adversarial states of terrorist organisations. The module covers the critical aspect of the psychology of surprise and its effect on National security, and students are then taught various early warning methodologies of preventing or managing the inherent risk of surprise. These include environmental scanning, risk forecasting, red-team analysis and strategic gaming. Students are taught how to identify and construct the essential elements of an intelligence warning system.